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IS THERE EVIDENCE OF A J-CURVE FOR THE SUDANESE TRADE DATA?


Khalafalla Ahmed Mohamed Arabi

Professor of Econometrics, University of Bakht Alruda, Sudan

Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla

Assistant Professor, University of Khartoum, Sudan


ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the existence of J–curve phenomenon for the Sudanese trade data during the period 1979-2006 via Vector Error Correction. The Marshal-Lerner condition has been met for the elasticity of real exchange rate while that of demand for imports and exports have not been achieved.  Empirical results do not support existence of J-curve. The real exchange rate is influential only in the short-run. The real income of the Euro-zone has positive impact on trade balance in the short-run and the long-run. The real income of Sudan and Arab countries has negative impact on the trade balance.


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