TITLE: PESTE DES PETITS RUMINANTS (PPR) INTRODUCTION INTO NORTHERN ZAMBIA FROM TANZANIA VIA LIVE GOAT CONSIGNMENT: A QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT STUDY.

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CITATION: Chazya, R., M’kandawire, E., Muma, J.B., Mwacalimba, K.K., Karimuribo, E & Simuunza, M (2015). Peste des Petits ruminants (ppr) introduction into northern Zambia from Tanzania via live goat consignment: a quantitative risk assessment study. International Journal of Science and Agriculture 2 (7), 1-23.

ABSTRACT

The risk of introduction of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) into northern Zambia from Tanzania was the subject of the quantitative risk assessment. This followed the Qualitatitive assessment work done by Chazya et al 2014, in which the qualitative risk of PPR introduction into northern Zambia from Tanzania was estimated to be high. PPR disease is widespread in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. It was recently reported in Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola; the neighboring countries of Zambia. The probability of each event possibly leading to PPR introduction in Zambia and the consequences of a possible outbreak of PPR were estimated using an OIE risk assessment framework of 2010. At 95% level of confidence, the annual risk of introducing PPR from Tanzania into Northern Zambia through importation of at least one PPR infected live goat from an annual consignment of 2413 animals from Tanzania was evaluated to be approximately 1 or 100%. Therefore, the quantitative probability estimate that PPRV virus will be introduced into northern Zambia through importation of live goats from Tanzania is high.

The sensitivity analysis by way of the tornado graph, reviewed that the prevalence of PPR in goats in Tanzania and lack of quarantine in Zambia were the major contributors to the ultimate risk. Therefore, importing goats from the disease free areas could significantly reduce the risk. Since Zambia has not yet reported PPR disease, small ruminants in the study area are likely to be naïve to the disease and as such are prone to the incursion once introduced. A few points for risk management options such as vaccination and emergence preparedness are discussed.

Keywords: Quantitative Assessment; PPRv; Goats; Trade; Tanzania; Zambia

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